The Sahel
A Preview of the New Normal?
The Sahel is a natural ecosystem at the southern border of the Sahara Desert. It is interesting because it has suffered from Climate Change since the 1980s, brought on not by carbon dioxide but by human and drought factors.
Where and what is the Sahel?
The Sahel is a region in Africa that stretches across the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, encompassing parts of over a dozen countries, including Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. This area is characterized by its arid and semi-arid climate, with erratic rainfall patterns, making it susceptible to desertification and food insecurity.
The desertification of the Sahel has been occurring for decades, with terrible implications for its population.
Historically
Before large trading ships, trains, and airplanes, the Sahel was a critical link in world trade. The region was the last staging area before caravans set off across the Sahara Desert. Multiple kingdoms rose and fell in the area from the 1200s to 1901. The last great country in the region, The Songhai Empire, lost land and money to the Sokoto Caliphate. In 1901, France conquered the last of the Songhai Empire and ushered in colonialism across the West and Central Sahel.
Drivers of Sahel problems
Geographic Factors
The Sahel is very vulnerable to drought and creeping desertification as it sits between jungle and desert. It straddles the line between wet and too dry. Desertification is when a fragile, arid ecosystem collapses due to overuse of scarce water. The Sahel has experienced desertification and rebirth many times over the years due to droughts and rains. But the desertification occurring now is different. Droughts are more frequent now and, therefore, deadlier. Even more critical is that the population throughout the region has grown.
In the Western Sahel (where we have good data) in 1960, there were 31 million people. In 2020, that same region had approximately 109 million people. In an area where subsistence farming is widespread, this number cannot be sustained without a decrease in the standard of living.
Economic Factors
The Sahel lacks basic infrastructure, including roads, energy, and healthcare facilities. This is a severe impediment to economic growth. Poor infrastructure makes it difficult to transport goods and services, hindering trade and investment.
Historically, high poverty levels and income inequality are prevalent in the Sahel. Much of the population does not have access to education, healthcare, and jobs, perpetuating a cycle of poverty.
Political Factors
The countries of the Sahel are not stable politically. They are unable to provide a safe and stable government, laws, or institutions. This is often chalked up to the fragileness of democratic institutions in an area where it is relatively new. But a far larger issue is that the entire region is resource-poor, but the population keeps growing.
In some areas, like Mali, Islamic rebels control large swathes of the country. Their beliefs and practices are antithetical to many of the region's peoples. Take, for example, the destruction of libraries at Timbuktu. These libraries held hundreds of thousands of scrolls and books from throughout history. Many were individual Korans for rich families, but even more were histories and irreplaceable stories from Africa. The destruction of the manuscripts, although not the libraries themselves, were prevented as the people of Timbuktu hid hundreds of thousands of the manuscripts.
Dictators and rebels find unemployed and disaffected young men easily to provide fighters in these economic and political conditions. Since 2020, there have been coups in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali (two), Chad and Niger. In the latest elections, the democratic rules were not followed by Nigeria, Senegal, or Mauritania.
Future of the Region
There are two ways to view the future of the Sahel. A traditional Western view would point to a bleak future. The problems of climate change and a growing population of desperate people should point to a continuation of the problems.
But looking at it another way means there is a reasonably good chance of a better future. Other neighboring nations like Kenya, Ghana, and Coté d’Ivorie have found ways through similar difficulties. The drive among young people can be focused on success with national cellular networks, the possibility for economic advancement, and a path forward. With stable or decreasing populations in nearly every nation outside of Africa, the dynamic nations in Africa are posed to prosper economically with economic demand.
As for me, I see a medium-term continuation of current problems and outcomes. But in the slightly longer-term, the region's dynamics should lift the Sahel people.