Somalia's Constant Crisis Explained
Why can't Somalia get its act together?
Somalia sits at the sad conflux of bad economics driven by bad geography and historical Cold War Conflict. This has been exasperated by the yoyo effect of post-Soviet international politics and its relationship with the country.
The geography of the country.
The country of Somalia consists of 3 distinct areas, with 3 distinct geographical regions. This alone is difficult for many countries to reconcile. This small country has “only” 3 regions, but they are economical and historically distinct
The country is located on the “Horn of Africa” nexus of many shipping routes, both current and historical routes through technological changes. These factors created an interest in its affairs from many other countries over time.
The regions are:
Somalia: This region in the south of the Federation was the most prosperous area in both ancient as well as recent times. It was a hub of commerce and had agricultural advantages over the other two regions. With reasonably good, if hot, climate and reliable rainfall seasons, this area produced agriculture and an ancient civilization. It was colonized by Italy in the 1880s. This colonization occurred mainly because of competing factions that aligned with Italy until the entire region was colonized.
After passing through the rule of Italian, then British, then Italian rule again, this region was the most prosperous and “western” of the regions. The capital of Mogadishu was the territorial and then national capital.
Somalia the region is now controlled by the official government – primarily in the capital of Mogadishu, Al Shaba – the radically conservative Islamic movement, and a raft of local warlords
Puntland: A recognized Autonomous Region inside the official Federal State of Somalia. Its weather is hot and dry with minimal rain and high temperatures, except in the few mountains in the far west.
Grazing is the primary form of agriculture now and in the past. However, Puntland has grown at a sustainable rate due to higher education levels and relative peace that allows steady infrastructure development. The state has a minimal movement pushing for independence, but it has a history of working with a local or global power.
It was colonized by Italy not by conquest, but by rival Puntland leaders trying to increase their influence with the support of a major power.
Puntland has a stable local government.
Somaliland: This area in the north of the country was colonized by the British, also primarily through alliances by the local powers. This area was ruled separately from the other two regions until it joined into the Somali Federation in 1960 via a public vote in the entire nation. However, the Somaliland people boycotted the election and never integrated into the country.
It is sparsely populated away from the coast with a very hot and dry climate. Natural barriers allow a high degree of autonomy from the rest of the federation.
In 1991, Somaliland declared independence from the country. Although it is officially unrecognized by the “international community”, the defacto national government has concluded trade agreements with several international companies and governments.
Geographically commanding the sea-lanes into the Suez Canal and down the east coast of Africa, Somalia was considered a critical pawn in the cold war. The constant tug between the USA and USSR gave local strongmen and oversized importance and power. Advantages they are loath to give up. Today these regions are nearly impossible to govern from a central seat.
Finally, the national government has been decimated by a powerful terrorist / local insurrection of Islamic fundamentalist. As you can see from the map below (courtesy of The Economist). The geography of climate change has increased the variability of rain and monsoon cycles.
To prevent famine, the country must cooperate on resource and food issues. However, the government is still fractured and can do neither. Most international support is about establishing a state national entity, hopefully allied to the sponsor’s ideology. As for actual famine food support (such as those provided by the UN), much of that is commandeered by the various military forces in order to reward their local forces.
The defacto independence of Puntland and Somaliland both provide resources to all locals, but also reinforce their drives to independence, not to national unity. And national unity is the one change that might be able to address both an integrated political system and framework for economic and food growth.