Did NATO expansion Cause Russia to invade Ukraine?

A Nuanced No

Russia claimed that one of the “causes” of the Ukrainian Invasion was the expansion of NATO towards Russia. This was put forward by Moscow as the reason for the invasion, along with the de-Nazification of Ukraine. This reason was also at least partially echoed by the Vatican, Turkey and other state actors at the start of the war. But is it true?

No.

Well, that might be too simple of an answer. NATO did, in fact, expand eastward. And NATO did so despite an agreement with the Soviet Union to allow German unification. The arguable thing is that the Soviet Union collapsed and the constitute republics did not all follow Soviet rules, treaties, or leadership. NATO did not expand when Boris Yeltsin was President of the Russian State and relations with the West were amiable.

During the last few years of Yeltsin’s administration, Vladimir Putin took more and more responsibilities, until Yeltsin resigned, and Putin became President. Putin had already lamented that Michael Gorbachev let Soviet Union fall apart. Under Yeltsin, Putin was in charge of the federalization of Russia, devolving power to the regions. However, he did not move this forward despite the previous head of the department signing 46 such agreements. After he became President, he cancelled all 46 agreements.

With the slow collapse of Yeltsin’s regime, and a more militaristic regime, the region destabilized. Three countries that had been controlled by and invaded by the Soviet Union looked to the west for protection for nearly a decade. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic all petitioned for entry into NATO, and the organization debated their entry until 1999. In 1992, Republicans took control of Congress and pressed for expansion, ultimately supported by President Clinton as well. This was a change in the US position and allowed for expansion

As Putin began to become more bellicose about the fall of the Soviet Union, the 3 new members pushed hard for the other members of the ex-Warsaw Pack to be allowed to join. And over the next decade those countries were admitted, along with Slovenia and the three Baltic Nations – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The later 3 had been part of the Soviet Union since it had invaded them in 1939. Their incorporation into NATO was an unpopular move in Russia and with much of the US military.

In 2008, Putin’s Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia and commandeered two of its regions. The United States and NATO, under George W Bush, declined to intervene or allow Georgia to join NATO. This aggressive move cemented NATO’s new member’s concerns with the rest of Eastern Europe. It led to the entry of Croatia and Albania in the next year, both far from Russia’s borders. However, both Ukraine and Georgia were denied membership. The United States did not want to guarantee the territory of either country, both of which were poor, not entirely democratic, and far from the United States’ sphere of influence.

This perceived acceptance by NATO of partial annexation of Georgia reinforced the idea that the west would not punish Russia. And for the next 8 years the status quo held.

This equilibrium changed radically when Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula. Once again, this did not lead to a NATO or any NATO member’s actions. Two other distant countries with minor militaries did join NATO after the invasion, but again membership was not offered to Ukraine or Georgia.

Putin’s Russia took this lack of response as weakness of NATO and he expected a similar non-response when the invasion of Ukraine was planned. However with the invasion of Ukraine, which would have brought Ukraine into Russian domination was countered in part this time by NATO members.

As NATO was not attacked here, the support was limited to weapons and intelligence. And as the Ukrainians stopped or slowed the invasion, most NATO members contributed more and more to Ukraine. The former eastern bloc nations pressed for a strong response.

Interestingly, Putin’s aggression in Ukraine drove two formerly neutral nations (Sweden and Finland) to apply for NATO membership.

But back to the question. Did NATO’s expansion “cause” the invasion of Ukraine? No. In fact, NATO’s perceived weakness helped convince Russia that our response would be outraged indifference. But expansion did provide a convenient excuse for inaction by other countries.